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Decision Making Under Risks in Hindi with Practical solved Example by JOLLY Coaching
 
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This video is about DECISION THEORY of OPERATION RESEARCH which includes certain Methods of decision theory like : minimax, maximin , maximax , minimax regret , laplace and hurwicz. All this methods are explained in detail with the help of solved numerical. This video will help you to understand this methods and ultimately you are able to solve any question of decision theory. I hope this video will be a helpful thing for you to understand the basic concept of decision theory and its methods. Thanks. JOLLY Coaching. DECISION MAKING UNDER RISK AND UNCERTAINTY Decision Making Process Decision-making is the prerogative of management and the nature of the decisions made will vary according to the status of the manager. At board level, fundamental decisions regarding the objectives of the organization, and the development of a corporate plan to fulfill those objectives will be made. Functional and line management will be involved in operational decisions designed to ensure the successful implementation of the planning decisions. At shop floor level, foremen and line supervisors will be involved in determining the best approach to performing more specific tasks. The importance of decision-making _ the function of management must therefore be emphasised, and at the same time a set of criteria and procedures for decision-making must be specified. A formalised decision-making process is essential for efficient management of the organisation. Nature of Decisions Decision-making is concerned with the selection of the preferred course of action from a range of possibilities. The classical concept of decision-making assumes that the decision-maker: Has complete knowledge of all the possible alternative courses of action. Has complete knowledge of the consequences of taking every alternative. Can attach definite payoffs or utilities to each possible outcome. Can order the payoffs of each course of action in a unique sequence from highest to lowest payoff. With these assumptions a decision-maker can be regarded as an optimiser when he selects the alternative course of action with the highest payoff. Four Elements Common to Decision Problems: 1) Actions [Acts/Strategies]: The set of two or more alternatives the decision-maker has chosen to consider. The decision-maker's problem is to choose one action from this set. 2) States of nature: The set of two or more mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive chance events upon which the outcome of the decision-maker's chosen action depends. 3) Outcomes: The set of consequences resulting from all possible action/state of nature combinations. 4) Objective variable: The quantity used to measure and express the outcomes of a decision problem. We can identify these four specific elements of the decision problem in our example. First, a choice must be made between two possible courses of action-rent the out¬door stadium or rent the indoor stadium. Second, it is uncertain which event will occur-rain or no rain. We refer to these events as states of nature. Note that the states of nature considered in any problem must be mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive. Third, depending on which action is chosen and which state of nature occurs on the evening of the concert, the decision-maker will receive either a financial reward or a penalty for the chosen action. The consequences of the decision problem are referred to as outcomes; these may be either positive or negative. For example, if the action chosen by the promoter is Rent the outdoor stadium and the state of nature that occurs is Rain, the outcome that results is (-Rs. 2 million). The combination Rent the outdoor stadium/No rain will yield a profit of Rs. 17 million. The reward (or penalty) corresponding to each action/state of nature combination is called the outcome or payoff. Fourth, since the outcome is expressed in terms of net profit, it is objective variable here. Decision Theory, Statistical Decision Making, State of Nature, Statistics, Operations Research, MBA, MCA, BE, CA, CS, CWA, CMA, CPA, CFA, BBA, BCom, MCom, BTech, MTech, CAIIB, FIII, Graduation, Post Graduation, BSc, MSc, BA, MA, Diploma, Production, Finance, Management, Commerce, Engineering , Grade-11, Grade- 12. How to solve decision Theory Practically. Decision Theory numerical question. Decision Theory in operation research. Decision Theory in OP. SOLVING DECISION THEORY. DECISION TREE ANALYSIS. OPERATION RESEARCH. DECISION THEORY. decision theory in hindi. decision theory statistics. decision theory problems. decision theory under uncertainty. decision theory kauser wise
Views: 107955 JOLLY Coaching
Decision Analysis 2: EMV & EVPI - Expected Value & Perfect Information
 
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In this tutorial, we discuss Decision Making With Probabilities (Decision Making under Risk). We calculate Expected Monetary Value (EMV) and Expected Value of Perfect Information (EVPI). Other videos: Decision Analysis 1: Maximax, Maximin, Minimax Regret https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NQ-mYn9fPag Decision Analysis 2: Equally Likely (Laplace) and Realism (Hurwicz) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zlblUq9Dd14 Decision Analysis 4: Decision Trees 1 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ydvnVw80I_8 Decision Analysis 5: EVSI - Expected Value of Sample Information https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FUY07dvaUuE
Views: 263600 Joshua Emmanuel
Decision Analysis Part-1 | Decisions Under Uncertainty/Risk & Sensitivity Analysis
 
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Includes, - steps for decision analysis - decisions under uncertainty - decisions under risk - sensitivity analysis - decision trees - minimax, maxmin, realism (hurwicz), equally likely, and minimax regret criteria - expected monetary value (emv) calculation Playlist: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PL34t5iLfZddtKi93_8Sd0KwwuABmgwbDS
Views: 19209 Bharatendra Rai
Using Decision Trees for Risk Analysis
 
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This video provides an explanation and example of how to create a decision tree for risk analysis. I created this video with the YouTube Video Editor (https://www.youtube.com/editor)
Views: 43934 Risk Precis
Investment Decision : Analysis Of Risk And Uncertainty
 
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Subject :Business Economics Course :Post Graduate Keyword : SWAYAMPRABHA
Prospect Theory
 
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Prospect theory part 1 neww with no issues -- Created using PowToon -- Free sign up at http://www.powtoon.com/youtube/ -- Create animated videos and animated presentations for free. PowToon is a free tool that allows you to develop cool animated clips and animated presentations for your website, office meeting, sales pitch, nonprofit fundraiser, product launch, video resume, or anything else you could use an animated explainer video. PowToon's animation templates help you create animated presentations and animated explainer videos from scratch. Anyone can produce awesome animations quickly with PowToon, without the cost or hassle other professional animation services require.
Views: 66980 Valerie Alvarez
Risk Analysis in Capital Budgeting - Introduction
 
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"Install our android app CARAJACLASSES to view lectures direct in your mobile - https://bit.ly/2S1oPM6 " Join my Whatsapp Broadcast / Group to receive daily lectures on similar topics through this Whatsapp direct link https://wa.me/917736022001 by simply messaging YOUTUBE LECTURES Did you liked this video lecture? Then please check out the complete course related to this lecture, ADVANCED FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT with 190+ Lectures, 24+ hours content available at discounted price (10% off)with life time validity and certificate of completion. Enrollment Link For Students Outside India: https://bit.ly/2N7P5BX Enrollment Link For Students From India: https://www.instamojo.com/caraja/advanced-financial-management-a-complete-stu/?discount=inyafmacs3 Our website link : https://www.carajaclasses.com Welcome to this course on Advanced Financial Management - A Comprehensive Study. In this course you will be expose to the advanced concepts of Financial Management covering a) Mergers and Acquisitions. b) Capital Market Instruments c) Advanced Capital Budgeting Techniques. d) Risk Analysis in Capital Budgeting e) Sensitivity and Scenario Analysis in Capital Budgeting f) Leasing g) Basics of Derivatives. h) Portfolio Management - Quantitative Techniques. i) Dividend Decisions. The above topics were also available as separate courses. By taking this course, you need not take the separate courses taught by me in the above names. This course is structured keeping Professional course students in mind like CA / CPA / CFA / CMA / MBA Finance, etc. This course will equip you for approaching those professional examinations. This course is presented in simple language with examples. This course has video lectures (with writings on Black / Green Board / Note book, etc). You would feel you are attending a real class. This course is structured in self paced learning style. You would require good internet connection for interruption free learning process. You have to go through the videos leisurely to grab the concepts with clarity. Take this course to gain strong hold on Advanced Concepts in Financial Management. • Category: Business What's in the Course? 1. Over 143 lectures and 16.5 hours of content! 2. Understand Mergers and Acquistions. 3. Understand Advanced Capital Budgeting Techniques 4. Understand Risk Analysis in Capital Budgeting 5. Understand Sensitivity and Scenario Analysis in Capital Budgeting 6. Understand Leasing 7. Understand Dividend Decisions 8. Understand Basics of Derivative Instruments 9. Understand Portfolio Management - Quanitative Techniques Course Requirements: 1. Basic knowledge in Financial Management 2. Basic Knowledge in Accounting Who Should Attend? 1. Professional Course students taking up courses like CA / CPA / CMA / CFA / CIMA / MBA Finance 2. Finance Professionals
Views: 16198 CARAJACLASSES
Expert Judgment in Risk Analysis by Mark Burgman
 
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Plenary talk from the First Global Conference on Research Integration and Implementation: "Expert Judgment in Risk Analysis." This presentation outlines the fundamentals of risk perception and their implications for assessing and making decisions under uncertainty. It describes experiments that evaluate the relationship between an expert's status and their ability to estimate uncertain facts. It describes procedures that improve the accuracy and conditioning of expert estimates of facts. Finally, it outlines the results of a four year experiment organised by Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA) in which participants predicted the outcome of various geopolitical events. The results highlight the benefits of structured question formats and structured group interactions for getting relatively high quality judgements out of experts. Speaker biography: Mark A. Burgman is Managing Director of the Centre of Excellence for Biosecurity Risk Analysis, the Adrienne Clarke Chair of Botany at the University of Melbourne and Editor-in-Chief of the journal Conservation Biology. He works on ecological modelling, conservation biology and risk assessment. His research has included models on a broad range of species and settings including marine fisheries, forestry, irrigation, electrical power utilities, mining, and national park planning. He received a BSc from the University of New South Wales (1974), an MSc from Macquarie University, Sydney (1981), and a Ph.D. from the State University of New York (1987). He worked as a consultant ecologist and research scientist in Australia, the United States and Switzerland during the 1980’s before joining the University of Melbourne in 1990. He has published over two hundred refereed papers and book chapters and seven authored books. He was elected to the Australian Academy of Science in 2006. Introduced by Howard Gadlin. The First Global Conference on Research Integration and Implementation was held in Canberra in Australia, online and at three co-conferences (Lueneburg in Germany, The Hague in the Netherlands and Montevideo in Uruguay), 8-11 September 2013.
2) Risk, Risk Informed Decision Making, Risk Analysis and Management
 
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Define and understand the differences and relationships between risk, risk informed decision making and risk analysis and management
Views: 558 Ernest Forman
Risk Aversion and Expected Utility Basics
 
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An overview of Risk aversion, visualizing gambles, insurance, and Arrow-Pratt measures of risk aversion. A thousand apologies for the terrible audio quality. Download Handout: https://sites.google.com/a/burkeyacademy.com/homeroom/my-forms/Risk%20Aversion%20Basics.pdf Link to my Uncertainty Playlist: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hr0K6K16PQs&list=PLlnEW8MeJ4z4K4YTTuwT41koMnkx9AxNW My Website: http://www.burkeyacademy.com/ Support me on Patreon! https://www.patreon.com/burkeyacademy Or, a one-time donation on PayPal is appreciated! http://paypal.me/BurkeyAcademy Talk to me on my SubReddit: https://www.reddit.com/r/BurkeyAcademy/
Views: 27027 BurkeyAcademy
Investment Decision: Analysis of Risk and Uncertainty
 
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Subject : Business Economics Paper :Principals of business finance and accounting
Views: 691 Vidya-mitra
Decision making under certainty - Example 1
 
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In this video, you will learn how to make decisions under certainty.
Views: 16874 maxus knowledge
Decision Analysis 3: Decision Trees
 
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This brief video explains *the components of the decision tree *how to construct a decision tree *how to solve (fold back) a decision tree. Other videos: Decision Analysis 1: Maximax, Maximin, Minimax Regret https://youtu.be/NQ-mYn9fPag Decision Analysis 1.1 (Costs): Maximax, Maximin, Minimax Regret https://youtu.be/ajkXzvVegBk Decision Analysis 2.1: Equally Likely (Laplace) and Realism (Hurwicz) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zlblUq9Dd14 Decision Analysis 2: EMV & EVPI - Expected Value & Perfect Information https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tbv9E9D2BRQ Decision Analysis 4: EVSI - Expected Value of Sample Information https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FUY07dvaUuE Decision Analysis 5: Posterior Probability Calculations https://youtu.be/FpKiHpYnY_I
Views: 220072 Joshua Emmanuel
Game Theory: The Science of Decision-Making
 
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With up to ten years in prison at stake, will Wanda rat Fred out? Game theory is looking at human interactions through the lens of mathematics. Hosted by: Hank Green ---------- Support SciShow by becoming a patron on Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/scishow ---------- Dooblydoo thanks go to the following Patreon supporters -- we couldn't make SciShow without them! Shout out to Kevin Bealer, Justin Lentz, Mark Terrio-Cameron, Patrick Merrithew, Accalia Elementia, Fatima Iqbal, Benny, Kyle Anderson, Mike Frayn, Tim Curwick, Will and Sonja Marple, Philippe von Bergen, Chris Peters, Kathy Philip, Patrick D. Ashmore, Thomas J., charles george, and Bader AlGhamdi. ---------- Like SciShow? Want to help support us, and also get things to put on your walls, cover your torso and hold your liquids? Check out our awesome products over at DFTBA Records: http://dftba.com/scishow ---------- Looking for SciShow elsewhere on the internet? Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/scishow Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/scishow Tumblr: http://scishow.tumblr.com Instagram: http://instagram.com/thescishow ---------- Sources: https://www.khanacademy.org/economics-finance-domain/microeconomics/nash-equilibrium-tutorial http://levine.sscnet.ucla.edu/general/whatis.htm http://assets.cambridge.org/97805213/61774/sample/9780521361774ws.pdf https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qcLZMYPdpH4 http://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-1-349-20181-5_1 http://www.gametheory.net/dictionary/Game.html Image Links: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Forbes_Nash_Jr.
Views: 2086572 SciShow
Prospect Theory
 
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Dalam video ini saya akan menerangkan tentang prospect theory dari perspective pelaburan Prospect theory ini adalah salah satu subjek dalam cabang technical analysis yang dipanggil “Behavioral Finance” Teori ini telah dicipta oleh Daniel Kahneman dan Amos Tvesky pada tahun 1979 melalui kertas kajian “Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk. Teori ini cuba menerangkan proses membuat keputusan melibatkan ketidakpastian dalam konteks psikologi dan ekonomi. Jika akan rasa video ini berguna, mohon dikongsi, komen dan subsribe channel saya
Views: 748 Firdaus Majid
Decision making under uncertainty - Example 1
 
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In this video, you will learn how to make decisions under uncertainty using Maximin, Maximax, Hurwicz, Regret and Laplace criteria.
Views: 16553 maxus knowledge
The psychology behind irrational decisions - Sara Garofalo
 
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View full lesson: http://ed.ted.com/lessons/the-psychology-behind-irrational-decisions-sara-garofalo Often people make decisions that are not “rational” from a purely economical point of view — meaning that they don’t necessarily lead to the best result. Why is that? Are we just bad at dealing with numbers and odds? Or is there a psychological mechanism behind it? Sara Garofalo explains heuristics, problem-solving approaches based on previous experience and intuition rather than analysis. Lesson by Sara Garofalo, animation by TOGETHER.
Views: 928667 TED-Ed
Prospect Theory
 
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Prospect theory shows that people tend to make decisions with particular biases, and understanding those biases provides fascinating insights into what influences consumer purchase decisions. Reference: Kahneman, Daniel, and Amos Tversky, 1979. Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk. Econometrica, 47(2), 263--292. visit: www.b2bwhiteboard.com
Views: 40795 B2Bwhiteboard
Difference Between Risk & Uncertainty ? Urdu / Hindi
 
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This Video Give The Basic Concept of What is Risk & Uncertainty ? Urdu / Hindi ZPZ Education Channel Link: www.youtube.com/channel/UCwFzeQDf9cGm_ZeTXV_t5SA
Views: 7847 ZPZ Education
PMP-  PMBOK -  Quantitative Risk Analysis -EMV - Expected Monetary Value Analysis
 
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PMP- PMBOK - Quantitative Risk Analysis -EMV - Expected Monetary Value Analysis using Decision tree. PMP® Certification Training: http://www.pmexpertinc.com/ www.pmexpertgroup.com For more updates on courses and tips follow us on: - Facebook :https://www.facebook.com/pmexpertinc/ http://www.pankajpmp.com/ You Tube Channel - https://www.youtube.com/c/PankajSharmaPMP
Views: 727 Pankaj Sharma
Decision Tree Analysis IN HINDI With  Solved Practical by JOLLY Coaching
 
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This video is about DECISION TREE ANALYSIS which will help you to understand the basic concept of decision tree analysis. In this video i have solved one practical question which will help you to get the process of solving any numerical question and example. After watching you will also get to know that how to construct the decision tree. I hope this will help you. Thanks JOLLY Coaching how to solve decision tree problem, Decision tree analysis, How to solve decision tree analysis, Practical solved questios on decision tree analysis. decision threoy decision tree analysis
Views: 140208 JOLLY Coaching
RISK ANALYSIS AND DECISION MAKING
 
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This video about how to manage physical assets-- Created using PowToon -- Free sign up at http://www.powtoon.com/youtube/ -- Create animated videos and animated presentations for free. PowToon is a free tool that allows you to develop cool animated clips and animated presentations for your website, office meeting, sales pitch, nonprofit fundraiser, product launch, video resume, or anything else you could use an animated explainer video. PowToon's animation templates help you create animated presentations and animated explainer videos from scratch. Anyone can produce awesome animations quickly with PowToon, without the cost or hassle other professional animation services require.
Views: 121 miss nadia
Consumer Behaviour under uncertainty
 
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Chitra Choudhary Assistant Professor Department of Economics University of Rajasthan, Jaipur
Views: 7732 vmouonline
Risk Analysis in Capital Budgeting
 
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This video will cover important part of Risk Analysis in Capital Budgeting. Other methods will be shared soon
Views: 2313 CA Pushpam Chourasia
Lesson 6 video 1: Risk, Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis
 
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In this and next videos I will explain how to incorporate risk and uncertainty in the economic evaluation of projects for the purpose of investment. I will explain how you can apply the sensitivity analysis techniques to evaluate the projects in this case. There are several quantitative methods for incorporating risk and uncertainty. I will explain two of these methods: 1) Sensitivity analysis or probabilistic sensitivity analysis 2)Expected value or expected net present value
Views: 9359 F. Tayari
Decision Theory - 1 Elements of common Decision Problems
 
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#OperationsResearch #Math #Statistics #DecisionTheory #DecisionMaking #DecisionProblem #Action #StateOfNature #Outcome #ObjectiveVariable #FreeLecture #FreeStudy #Solution DECISION MAKING UNDER RISK AND UNCERTAINTY Decision Making Process Decision-making is the prerogative of management and the nature of the decisions made will vary according to the status of the manager. At board level, fundamental decisions regarding the objectives of the organization, and the development of a corporate plan to fulfill those objectives will be made. Functional and line management will be involved in operational decisions designed to ensure the successful implementation of the planning decisions. At shop floor level, foremen and line supervisors will be involved in determining the best approach to performing more specific tasks. The importance of decision-making _ the function of management must therefore be emphasised, and at the same time a set of criteria and procedures for decision-making must be specified. A formalised decision-making process is essential for efficient management of the organisation. Nature of Decisions Decision-making is concerned with the selection of the preferred course of action from a range of possibilities. The classical concept of decision-making assumes that the decision-maker: Has complete knowledge of all the possible alternative courses of action. Has complete knowledge of the consequences of taking every alternative. Can attach definite payoffs or utilities to each possible outcome. Can order the payoffs of each course of action in a unique sequence from highest to lowest payoff. With these assumptions a decision-maker can be regarded as an optimiser when he selects the alternative course of action with the highest payoff. Four Elements Common to Decision Problems: 1) Actions [Acts/Strategies]: The set of two or more alternatives the decision-maker has chosen to consider. The decision-maker's problem is to choose one action from this set. 2) States of nature: The set of two or more mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive chance events upon which the outcome of the decision-maker's chosen action depends. 3) Outcomes: The set of consequences resulting from all possible action/state of nature combinations. 4) Objective variable: The quantity used to measure and express the outcomes of a decision problem. We can identify these four specific elements of the decision problem in our example. First, a choice must be made between two possible courses of action-rent the out¬door stadium or rent the indoor stadium. Second, it is uncertain which event will occur-rain or no rain. We refer to these events as states of nature. Note that the states of nature considered in any problem must be mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive. Third, depending on which action is chosen and which state of nature occurs on the evening of the concert, the decision-maker will receive either a financial reward or a penalty for the chosen action. The consequences of the decision problem are referred to as outcomes; these may be either positive or negative. For example, if the action chosen by the promoter is Rent the outdoor stadium and the state of nature that occurs is Rain, the outcome that results is (-Rs. 2 million). The combination Rent the outdoor stadium/No rain will yield a profit of Rs. 17 million. The reward (or penalty) corresponding to each action/state of nature combination is called the outcome or payoff. Fourth, since the outcome is expressed in terms of net profit, it is objective variable here. Decision Theory, Statistical Decision Making, State of Nature, Statistics, Operations Research, MBA, MCA, BE, CA, CS, CWA, CMA, CPA, CFA, BBA, BCom, MCom, BTech, MTech, CAIIB, FIII, Graduation, Post Graduation, BSc, MSc, BA, MA, Diploma, Production, Finance, Management, Commerce, Engineering , Grade-11, Grade- 12 - www.prashantpuaar.com
Views: 28218 Prashant Puaar
Risk Analysis and Decision making
 
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-- Created using PowToon -- Free sign up at http://www.powtoon.com/youtube/ -- Create animated videos and animated presentations for free. PowToon is a free tool that allows you to develop cool animated clips and animated presentations for your website, office meeting, sales pitch, nonprofit fundraiser, product launch, video resume, or anything else you could use an animated explainer video. PowToon's animation templates help you create animated presentations and animated explainer videos from scratch. Anyone can produce awesome animations quickly with PowToon, without the cost or hassle other professional animation services require.
Views: 515 Suhazwani Ali
Decision Tree Analysis/EMV - Risk PMP Exam Prep Problem
 
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PMP Exam Audio Prep: http://praizion.com Our project management courses are credit eligible for contact hours or professional development units (PDUs). Participants studying for the PMP® exam can claim the contact hours earned to satisfy PMI's eligibility requirements for the PMP® exam. Project managers seeking to maintain their PMP certification can claim the PDUs earned to satisfy PMI's Continuing Certification Requirements. Mission Statement At Praizion Media, our goal is to significantly enhance core competency in project management and equip participants with the necessary tools and skills to hit--the-ground-running in their project work. We are committed to providing clear understanding of the PMBOK® Guide, project management, project management tools, techniques and concepts to participants worldwide. With a mind-set of quality and excellence, we strive to: • Uphold the project management methodology advocated by the Project Management Institute (PMI®). • Present real world project management concepts and examples in an accessible, understandable framework. • Provide PMP® candidates with a mechanism to gauge understanding and preparedness for the PMP® exam. • Reinforce project management sensibility through targetted learning instruction.
Views: 6571 Praizion
Risk Analysis in Capital Budgeting SFM Revision by CA,CFA(USA),CPA(USA) Praveen Khatod
 
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Revision Batch Handouts are available at http://alphaacademyindia.com/static/pdf/SFM-Revision-Handouts_PraveenKhatod.pdf
Views: 11606 CA Praveen Khatod
CMA Part II-Unit 8 Decision Analysis & Risk Management.
 
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Berkeley Middle East Inc. USA offering Berkeley CMA Video Series which are classroom recordings of our live lectures. We have several options to train you including CMA online which is live interactive by using latest video conferencing tools, Live on campus & for corporate trainings at client site. We help candidate for passing in CMA examination. To purchase CMA videos from Berkeley Middle East Inc. visit our website www.berkeleyme.com or Call 00971504401915 Berkeley ME is Proud to be the first Training Company in the world to create awareness through video lectures about CMA Program. "At Berkeley ME Success is our Promise". ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CMA Dubai, CMA UAE , CMA Part 1 Dubai, CMA Part 2 Dubai, CMA Course in Dubai , CMA Worldwide IMA, CMA, CMA video, CMA online, CMA USA, Berkeley Middle East, CMA Books, CMA free study material, CMA Books, Berkeley CMA, Berkeley Middle East, Musa Shaikh, CMA KSA, CMA Saudi Arabia, CMA Qatar, CMA Bahrain, CMA Oman, CMA in Abu Dhabi, CMA Introduction, Demo class ,CMA information ,CMA students,www.imanet.org, CMA coaching classes, Training company, Training in Dubai, Accounting, finance, banking, tax, audit, management, Accounting jobs, Finance Jobs, banking jobs
Views: 2836 Musa Shaikh
127. Overfitting & Reference Class Forecasting | THUNK
 
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Predicting the future is hard. Weirdly enough, you can sometimes do better with *less* information! -Links for the Curious- Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk (Kahneman & Tversky, 1979) - https://www.princeton.edu/~kahneman/docs/Publications/prospect_theory.pdf "Curbing Optimism Bias and Strategic Misrepresentation in Planning: Reference Class Forecasting in Practice" (Flyvbjerg, 2008) - https://www.researchgate.net/publication/233258056_Curbing_Optimism_Bias_and_Strategic_Misrepresentation_in_Planning_Reference_Class_Forecasting_in_Practice "The accuracy of hybrid estimating approaches? Case study of an Australian state road & traffic authority" (Liu, Wehbe, & Sisovic, 2010) - https://www.pmi.org/learning/library/accuracy-hybrid-reference-class-forecasting-6456
Views: 2564 THUNK
Decision Tree Analysis and Risk Management
 
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a) Decision trees continue b) Ways of minimizing project risks c) Introduction to Decision analysis
Views: 1694 Project Management
Decision Making Toolkit: Uncertainty and Decision Making, Lesson 1 - Risk Profiles
 
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This lesson describes how to create risk profiles in order to reduce the complexity that uncertainty brings and raise the odds of making a good decision.
Views: 3330 Jehangir Mehentee
6. Monte Carlo Simulation
 
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MIT 6.0002 Introduction to Computational Thinking and Data Science, Fall 2016 View the complete course: http://ocw.mit.edu/6-0002F16 Instructor: John Guttag Prof. Guttag discusses the Monte Carlo simulation, Roulette License: Creative Commons BY-NC-SA More information at http://ocw.mit.edu/terms More courses at http://ocw.mit.edu
Views: 447726 MIT OpenCourseWare
Adversarial Risk Analysis  An Overview 1
 
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Adversarial Risk Analysis (ARA) is a Bayesian approach to strategic decision-making. One builds a model of one's opponents, expressing subjective uncertainty about the solution concept each opponent uses, as well as their utilities, probabilities, and capabilities.
Revise FM-capital budgeting and risk analysis in capital budgeting in just 2hrs| 15 marks[May/Nov19]
 
02:31:03
Hello Friends, Now SPC is also available on telegram for all updates. Link - https://t.me/swapnilpatniclasses Here are our Official Website link to buy Our Products. CA Foundation - https://goo.gl/5DMXQv CA Intermediate - https://goo.gl/z4TmF1 CA Final - https://goo.gl/tjuWWj Follow us on our Official Social Media Facebook - https://www.facebook.com/capatniswapnil/ Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/swapnil_patni/ Twitter - https://twitter.com/swapnil_patni
Views: 52985 SWAPNIL PATNI
Decision Theory Basics
 
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Basic decision theory techniques including: 1:40 conservative decision maker 2:20 optimistic decision maker 3:15 equal likelihood 4:30 expected value--risk neutral decision maker 6:35 decision tree 10:00 expected value of perfect information
Behavioral Economics: Crash Course Economics #27
 
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Why do people buy the stuff they buy? In classical economics, most models assume that consumers behave rationally. As you've probably noticed in your real life, in case after case, people don't actually make rational decisions. There can be emotional or social reasons for all this irrationality, and behavioral economics tries to address this. We'll talk about risk, nudge theory, prices and perception, and the ultimatum game. So, let's get irrational, in a logical way, of course. Crash Course is on Patreon! You can support us directly by signing up at http://www.patreon.com/crashcourse Thanks to the following Patrons for their generous monthly contributions that help keep Crash Course free for everyone forever: Mark, Eric Kitchen, Jessica Wode, Jeffrey Thompson, Steve Marshall, Moritz Schmidt, Robert Kunz, Tim Curwick, Jason A Saslow, SR Foxley, Elliot Beter, Jacob Ash, Christian, Jan Schmid, Jirat, Christy Huddleston, Daniel Baulig, Chris Peters, Anna-Ester Volozh, Ian Dundore, Caleb Weeks -- Want to find Crash Course elsewhere on the internet? Facebook - http://www.facebook.com/YouTubeCrashCourse Twitter - http://www.twitter.com/TheCrashCourse Tumblr - http://thecrashcourse.tumblr.com Support Crash Course on Patreon: http://patreon.com/crashcourse CC Kids: http://www.youtube.com/crashcoursekids
Views: 432384 CrashCourse
Matteo Pozzi: Risk Analysis & Decision Making: Civil Infrastructure Systems
 
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Matteo Pozzi, Assistant Professor of Civil and Environmental Engineering, uses micro air vehicles to decide how best to maintain wind farms and other civil infrastructure systems over time.
Prospect theory | Wikipedia audio article
 
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This is an audio version of the Wikipedia Article: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prospect_theory 00:01:27 1 Model 00:16:47 2 Example 00:24:27 3 Applications 00:24:47 4 Limits and extensions 00:25:08 5 See also 00:25:25 6 Notes 00:25:36 7 Further reading 00:25:53 8 External links 00:29:02 Limits and extensions 00:30:48 See also 00:30:57 Notes 00:31:07 Further reading 00:38:10 External links Listening is a more natural way of learning, when compared to reading. Written language only began at around 3200 BC, but spoken language has existed long ago. Learning by listening is a great way to: - increases imagination and understanding - improves your listening skills - improves your own spoken accent - learn while on the move - reduce eye strain Now learn the vast amount of general knowledge available on Wikipedia through audio (audio article). You could even learn subconsciously by playing the audio while you are sleeping! If you are planning to listen a lot, you could try using a bone conduction headphone, or a standard speaker instead of an earphone. Listen on Google Assistant through Extra Audio: https://assistant.google.com/services/invoke/uid/0000001a130b3f91 Other Wikipedia audio articles at: https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=wikipedia+tts Upload your own Wikipedia articles through: https://github.com/nodef/wikipedia-tts Speaking Rate: 0.7093069276898928 Voice name: en-US-Wavenet-B "I cannot teach anybody anything, I can only make them think." - Socrates SUMMARY ======= Prospect theory is a theory in cognitive psychology that describes the way people choose between probabilistic alternatives that involve risk, where the probabilities of outcomes are uncertain. The theory states that people make decisions based on the potential value of losses and gains rather than the final outcome, and that people evaluate these losses and gains using some heuristics. The model is descriptive: it tries to model real-life choices, rather than optimal decisions, as normative models do. The theory was created in 1979 and developed in 1992 by Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky as a psychologically more accurate description of decision making, compared to the expected utility theory. In the original formulation, the term prospect referred to a lottery. The paper "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk" (1979) has been called a "seminal paper in behavioral economics".
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