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Decision Making Under Risks in Hindi with Practical solved Example by JOLLY Coaching
 
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This video is about DECISION THEORY of OPERATION RESEARCH which includes certain Methods of decision theory like : minimax, maximin , maximax , minimax regret , laplace and hurwicz. All this methods are explained in detail with the help of solved numerical. This video will help you to understand this methods and ultimately you are able to solve any question of decision theory. I hope this video will be a helpful thing for you to understand the basic concept of decision theory and its methods. Thanks. JOLLY Coaching. DECISION MAKING UNDER RISK AND UNCERTAINTY Decision Making Process Decision-making is the prerogative of management and the nature of the decisions made will vary according to the status of the manager. At board level, fundamental decisions regarding the objectives of the organization, and the development of a corporate plan to fulfill those objectives will be made. Functional and line management will be involved in operational decisions designed to ensure the successful implementation of the planning decisions. At shop floor level, foremen and line supervisors will be involved in determining the best approach to performing more specific tasks. The importance of decision-making _ the function of management must therefore be emphasised, and at the same time a set of criteria and procedures for decision-making must be specified. A formalised decision-making process is essential for efficient management of the organisation. Nature of Decisions Decision-making is concerned with the selection of the preferred course of action from a range of possibilities. The classical concept of decision-making assumes that the decision-maker: Has complete knowledge of all the possible alternative courses of action. Has complete knowledge of the consequences of taking every alternative. Can attach definite payoffs or utilities to each possible outcome. Can order the payoffs of each course of action in a unique sequence from highest to lowest payoff. With these assumptions a decision-maker can be regarded as an optimiser when he selects the alternative course of action with the highest payoff. Four Elements Common to Decision Problems: 1) Actions [Acts/Strategies]: The set of two or more alternatives the decision-maker has chosen to consider. The decision-maker's problem is to choose one action from this set. 2) States of nature: The set of two or more mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive chance events upon which the outcome of the decision-maker's chosen action depends. 3) Outcomes: The set of consequences resulting from all possible action/state of nature combinations. 4) Objective variable: The quantity used to measure and express the outcomes of a decision problem. We can identify these four specific elements of the decision problem in our example. First, a choice must be made between two possible courses of action-rent the out¬door stadium or rent the indoor stadium. Second, it is uncertain which event will occur-rain or no rain. We refer to these events as states of nature. Note that the states of nature considered in any problem must be mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive. Third, depending on which action is chosen and which state of nature occurs on the evening of the concert, the decision-maker will receive either a financial reward or a penalty for the chosen action. The consequences of the decision problem are referred to as outcomes; these may be either positive or negative. For example, if the action chosen by the promoter is Rent the outdoor stadium and the state of nature that occurs is Rain, the outcome that results is (-Rs. 2 million). The combination Rent the outdoor stadium/No rain will yield a profit of Rs. 17 million. The reward (or penalty) corresponding to each action/state of nature combination is called the outcome or payoff. Fourth, since the outcome is expressed in terms of net profit, it is objective variable here. Decision Theory, Statistical Decision Making, State of Nature, Statistics, Operations Research, MBA, MCA, BE, CA, CS, CWA, CMA, CPA, CFA, BBA, BCom, MCom, BTech, MTech, CAIIB, FIII, Graduation, Post Graduation, BSc, MSc, BA, MA, Diploma, Production, Finance, Management, Commerce, Engineering , Grade-11, Grade- 12. How to solve decision Theory Practically. Decision Theory numerical question. Decision Theory in operation research. Decision Theory in OP. SOLVING DECISION THEORY. DECISION TREE ANALYSIS. OPERATION RESEARCH. DECISION THEORY. decision theory in hindi. decision theory statistics. decision theory problems. decision theory under uncertainty. decision theory kauser wise
Views: 83039 JOLLY Coaching
Decision Analysis Part-1 | Decisions Under Uncertainty/Risk & Sensitivity Analysis
 
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Includes, - steps for decision analysis - decisions under uncertainty - decisions under risk - sensitivity analysis - decision trees - minimax, maxmin, realism (hurwicz), equally likely, and minimax regret criteria - expected monetary value (emv) calculation Playlist: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PL34t5iLfZddtKi93_8Sd0KwwuABmgwbDS
Views: 16339 Bharatendra Rai
Decision Analysis 2: EMV & EVPI - Expected Value & Perfect Information
 
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In this tutorial, we discuss Decision Making With Probabilities (Decision Making under Risk). We calculate Expected Monetary Value (EMV) and Expected Value of Perfect Information (EVPI). Other videos: Decision Analysis 1: Maximax, Maximin, Minimax Regret https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NQ-mYn9fPag Decision Analysis 2: Equally Likely (Laplace) and Realism (Hurwicz) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zlblUq9Dd14 Decision Analysis 4: Decision Trees 1 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ydvnVw80I_8 Decision Analysis 5: EVSI - Expected Value of Sample Information https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FUY07dvaUuE
Views: 232787 Joshua Emmanuel
Investment Decision : Analysis Of Risk And Uncertainty
 
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Subject :Business Economics Course :Post Graduate Keyword : SWAYAMPRABHA
Decision Analysis 1: Maximax, Maximin, Minimax Regret
 
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For an example where payoffs are costs please see: https://youtu.be/ajkXzvVegBk Decision Making Without Probabilities Part 1. This brief video explains the components of the Payoff Table and the systematic approaches involved in making decisions under uncertainty: Maximax (Optimistic) Maximin (Pessimistic or Conservative) Minimax Regret Other videos: Other videos: Decision Analysis 1.1 (Costs): Maximax, Maximin, Minimax Regret https://youtu.be/ajkXzvVegBk Decision Analysis 2.1: Equally Likely (Laplace) and Realism (Hurwicz) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zlblUq9Dd14 Decision Analysis 2: EMV & EVPI - Expected Value & Perfect Information https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tbv9E9D2BRQ Decision Analysis 3: Decision Trees 1 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ydvnVw80I_8 Decision Analysis 4: EVSI - Expected Value of Sample Information https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FUY07dvaUuE Decision Analysis 5: Posterior Probability Calculations https://youtu.be/FpKiHpYnY_I
Views: 315946 Joshua Emmanuel
Using Decision Trees for Risk Analysis
 
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This video provides an explanation and example of how to create a decision tree for risk analysis. I created this video with the YouTube Video Editor (https://www.youtube.com/editor)
Views: 40579 Risk Precis
Utility and Risk Preferences Part 1 - Utility Function
 
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Video for computing utility numerically https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0K-u9dpRiUQ More videos at http://facpub.stjohns.edu/~moyr/videoonyoutube.htm
Views: 164223 Ronald Moy
Decision making | Processing the Environment | MCAT | Khan Academy
 
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Learn about common heuristics, biases, and other factors that affect our decisions. Created by Carole Yue. Watch the next lesson: https://www.khanacademy.org/test-prep/mcat/processing-the-environment/cognition/v/semantic-networks-and-spreading-activation?utm_source=YT&utm_medium=Desc&utm_campaign=mcat Missed the previous lesson? https://www.khanacademy.org/test-prep/mcat/processing-the-environment/cognition/v/problem-solving?utm_source=YT&utm_medium=Desc&utm_campaign=mcat MCAT on Khan Academy: Go ahead and practice some passage-based questions! About Khan Academy: Khan Academy offers practice exercises, instructional videos, and a personalized learning dashboard that empower learners to study at their own pace in and outside of the classroom. We tackle math, science, computer programming, history, art history, economics, and more. Our math missions guide learners from kindergarten to calculus using state-of-the-art, adaptive technology that identifies strengths and learning gaps. We've also partnered with institutions like NASA, The Museum of Modern Art, The California Academy of Sciences, and MIT to offer specialized content. For free. For everyone. Forever. #YouCanLearnAnything Subscribe to Khan Academy’s MCAT channel: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCDkK5wqSuwDlJ3_nl3rgdiQ?sub_confirmation=1 Subscribe to Khan Academy: https://www.youtube.com/subscription_center?add_user=khanacademy
Views: 94111 khanacademymedicine
Lesson 6 video 1: Risk, Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis
 
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In this and next videos I will explain how to incorporate risk and uncertainty in the economic evaluation of projects for the purpose of investment. I will explain how you can apply the sensitivity analysis techniques to evaluate the projects in this case. There are several quantitative methods for incorporating risk and uncertainty. I will explain two of these methods: 1) Sensitivity analysis or probabilistic sensitivity analysis 2)Expected value or expected net present value
Views: 7946 F. Tayari
Create a Risk Assessment Chart
 
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Check out my Blog: http://exceltraining101.blogspot.com This video covers how to create a colored (green-yellow-red) risk assessment chart. This is used in project management to compare risk to probability for various task or projects to help aid in decision making. Feel free to provide a comment or share it with a friend! #exceltips #exceltipsandtricks #exceltutorial #doughexcel
Views: 203536 Doug H
Risk Analysis How to Analyze Risks on Your Project - Project Management Training
 
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Watch as Jennifer Bridges, PMP, https://www.projectmanager.com/?utm_source=youtube.com&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=CreatingaProjectPMSoftwareTutorial as she explains why you need to analyze risk and how to do it effectively.
Risk Analysis and Decision making
 
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-- Created using PowToon -- Free sign up at http://www.powtoon.com/youtube/ -- Create animated videos and animated presentations for free. PowToon is a free tool that allows you to develop cool animated clips and animated presentations for your website, office meeting, sales pitch, nonprofit fundraiser, product launch, video resume, or anything else you could use an animated explainer video. PowToon's animation templates help you create animated presentations and animated explainer videos from scratch. Anyone can produce awesome animations quickly with PowToon, without the cost or hassle other professional animation services require.
Views: 480 Suhazwani Ali
17. Project Risk Analysis
 
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Risk Analysis can be complex, as you'll need to draw on detailed information such as project plans, financial data, security protocols, marketing forecasts, and ... PLEASE REFER THE LINKS AS FOLLOW IF YOU NEED LEARN MORE: - You Can Ace Your PMP® Exam With The World’s Most Popular PMP® Video Training Course! : http://bit.ly/2AnUnGh - The PMI-ACP® Exam Simulator Features : http://bit.ly/2k7GuoW - CAPM® Exam Prep and CAPM® Exam Simulator : http://bit.ly/2Af7dWC - Free PMI-ACP® Exam Simulator : http://bit.ly/2nixIWw - The CAPM® Exam Simulator Features : http://bit.ly/2Ah2qUE - The PMP Exam is Changing in 2018 : http://bit.ly/2AmSk5f - PMP Exam Prep Essentials Overview Your Condensed PMP® Exam Prep Study Guide : http://bit.ly/2ngB8ZQ - eBook The PMP Exam Prep Essentials Study Guide : http://bit.ly/2ngB8ZQ - The PMP Exam Printable FlashCards (PDF FlashCards Only) : http://bit.ly/2ByCiTE - The PMP Exam eFlashCards (Portable eFlashCards Only) : http://bit.ly/2i3lUBQ - The PMP Exam FlashCards (eFlashCards & PDF Bundle) : http://bit.ly/2BAEuKr - PMP Exam Formula Study Guide (Free, Redacted Version) : http://bit.ly/2kbPoBU - The PM StudyCoach (For PMBOK Guide 5th Edition) : http://bit.ly/2Bnn035 - The PDU Podcast (Year 3) : http://bit.ly/2AmAY65 - Earn PDUs with The PM PrepCast : http://bit.ly/2zAXgjc - Earn PDUs with The Agile PrepCast : http://bit.ly/2Alns2n - The PM PrepCast (For PMBOK Guide 5th Edition) : http://bit.ly/2ipC5NZ - The Free Agile PrepCast : http://bit.ly/2kd0VRl - The Agile PrepCast : http://bit.ly/2nieb8w - The PDU Podcast (Year 2) : http://bit.ly/2Af9qRU - The PDU Podcast (Year 1) : http://bit.ly/2Af9ykm - The Free PM PrepCast - Sample Videos and Free PMP Exam Prep Material : http://bit.ly/2k9tBuK - The PDU Podcast (Monthly Subscription) : http://bit.ly/2ne1uLO - PMP Exam Formula Study Guide : http://bit.ly/2ALYfRU
RISK ANALYSIS AND DECISION MAKING
 
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This video about how to manage physical assets-- Created using PowToon -- Free sign up at http://www.powtoon.com/youtube/ -- Create animated videos and animated presentations for free. PowToon is a free tool that allows you to develop cool animated clips and animated presentations for your website, office meeting, sales pitch, nonprofit fundraiser, product launch, video resume, or anything else you could use an animated explainer video. PowToon's animation templates help you create animated presentations and animated explainer videos from scratch. Anyone can produce awesome animations quickly with PowToon, without the cost or hassle other professional animation services require.
Views: 118 miss nadia
2) Risk, Risk Informed Decision Making, Risk Analysis and Management
 
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Define and understand the differences and relationships between risk, risk informed decision making and risk analysis and management
Views: 465 Ernest Forman
Risk Analysis in Capital Budgeting - Introduction
 
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"Install our android app CARAJACLASSES to view lectures direct in your mobile - https://bit.ly/2S1oPM6 " Join my Whatsapp Broadcast / Group to receive daily lectures on similar topics through this Whatsapp direct link https://wa.me/917736022001 by simply messaging YOUTUBE LECTURES Did you liked this video lecture? Then please check out the complete course related to this lecture, ADVANCED FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT with 190+ Lectures, 24+ hours content available at discounted price (10% off)with life time validity and certificate of completion. Enrollment Link For Students Outside India: https://bit.ly/2N7P5BX Enrollment Link For Students From India: https://www.instamojo.com/caraja/advanced-financial-management-a-complete-stu/?discount=inyafmacs3 Our website link : https://www.carajaclasses.com Welcome to this course on Advanced Financial Management - A Comprehensive Study. In this course you will be expose to the advanced concepts of Financial Management covering a) Mergers and Acquisitions. b) Capital Market Instruments c) Advanced Capital Budgeting Techniques. d) Risk Analysis in Capital Budgeting e) Sensitivity and Scenario Analysis in Capital Budgeting f) Leasing g) Basics of Derivatives. h) Portfolio Management - Quantitative Techniques. i) Dividend Decisions. The above topics were also available as separate courses. By taking this course, you need not take the separate courses taught by me in the above names. This course is structured keeping Professional course students in mind like CA / CPA / CFA / CMA / MBA Finance, etc. This course will equip you for approaching those professional examinations. This course is presented in simple language with examples. This course has video lectures (with writings on Black / Green Board / Note book, etc). You would feel you are attending a real class. This course is structured in self paced learning style. You would require good internet connection for interruption free learning process. You have to go through the videos leisurely to grab the concepts with clarity. Take this course to gain strong hold on Advanced Concepts in Financial Management. • Category: Business What's in the Course? 1. Over 143 lectures and 16.5 hours of content! 2. Understand Mergers and Acquistions. 3. Understand Advanced Capital Budgeting Techniques 4. Understand Risk Analysis in Capital Budgeting 5. Understand Sensitivity and Scenario Analysis in Capital Budgeting 6. Understand Leasing 7. Understand Dividend Decisions 8. Understand Basics of Derivative Instruments 9. Understand Portfolio Management - Quanitative Techniques Course Requirements: 1. Basic knowledge in Financial Management 2. Basic Knowledge in Accounting Who Should Attend? 1. Professional Course students taking up courses like CA / CPA / CMA / CFA / CIMA / MBA Finance 2. Finance Professionals
Views: 13830 CARAJACLASSES
Decision Theory #2- Decision Making Under Uncertainty
 
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I hope you found this video useful, please subscribe for daily videos! WBM Foundations: Mathematical logic Set theory Algebra: Number theory Group theory Lie groups Commutative rings Associative ring theory Nonassociative ring theory Field theory General algebraic systems Algebraic geometry Linear algebra Category theory K-theory Combinatorics and Discrete Mathematics Ordered sets Geometry Geometry Convex and discrete geometry Differential geometry General topology Algebraic topology Manifolds Analysis Calculus and Real Analysis: Real functions Measure theory and integration Special functions Finite differences and functional equations Sequences and series Complex analysis Complex variables Potential theory Multiple complex variables Differential and integral equations Ordinary differential equations Partial differential equations Dynamical systems Integral equations Calculus of variations and optimization Global analysis, analysis on manifolds Functional analysis Functional analysis Fourier analysis Abstract harmonic analysis Integral transforms Operator theory Numerical analysis and optimization Numerical analysis Approximations and expansions Operations research Probability and statistics Probability theory Statistics Computer Science Computer science Information and communication Applied mathematics Mechanics of particles and systems Mechanics of solids Fluid mechanics Optics, electromagnetic theory Classical thermodynamics, heat transfer Quantum Theory Statistical mechanics, structure of matter Relativity and gravitational theory Astronomy and astrophysics Geophysics applications Systems theory Other sciences Category
Views: 36655 WelshBeastMaths
Hazard, Risk & Safety - Understanding Risk Assessment, Management and Perception
 
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(subtitles available in English, French, Dutch, Spanish, Chinese and Russian, German, and a French version is available here: https://youtu.be/wRmfvFYDNr8) Hazard, Risk & Safety Danger, risques et sécurité Gevaar, risico's en veiligheid Peligro, riesgo y seguridad Опасность, риск и безопасность Gefahr, Risiko und Sicherheit We all hear these terms on a daily basis. So and so a chemical, physical or a biological agent poses a risk; This or that product is a hazard or behaving a certain way is unsafe. A lot of the time “hazard” and “risk” are freely used to mean the same thing. However they are not. Hazard is the potential to cause harm. Risk on the other hand is the likelihood of harm in defined circumstances. In a nutshell, hazard and risk are not always aligned as the risk depends on the exposure to the hazard ; similarly, risk, safety and perception of risk are not always aligned; this can make political decisions regarding safety levels difficult to make, in these cases it is especially important to base them on facts rather than on subjective perceptions. http://www.greenfacts.org
Views: 369808 GreenFacts.org
Decision analysis part 1
 
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The objective is to understand type I and type II errors and the misleading use of hindsight to evaluate mortgage decisions. The American Housing Finance System course: http://mruniversity.com/courses/american-housing-finance-system Ask a question about the video: http://mruniversity.com/courses/american-housing-finance-system/decision-analysis-part-1#QandA Next video: http://mruniversity.com/courses/american-housing-finance-system/decision-analysis-part-2 Help us caption & translate this video! http://amara.org/v/HMPm/
Game Theory: The Science of Decision-Making
 
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With up to ten years in prison at stake, will Wanda rat Fred out? Game theory is looking at human interactions through the lens of mathematics. Hosted by: Hank Green ---------- Support SciShow by becoming a patron on Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/scishow ---------- Dooblydoo thanks go to the following Patreon supporters -- we couldn't make SciShow without them! Shout out to Kevin Bealer, Justin Lentz, Mark Terrio-Cameron, Patrick Merrithew, Accalia Elementia, Fatima Iqbal, Benny, Kyle Anderson, Mike Frayn, Tim Curwick, Will and Sonja Marple, Philippe von Bergen, Chris Peters, Kathy Philip, Patrick D. Ashmore, Thomas J., charles george, and Bader AlGhamdi. ---------- Like SciShow? Want to help support us, and also get things to put on your walls, cover your torso and hold your liquids? Check out our awesome products over at DFTBA Records: http://dftba.com/scishow ---------- Looking for SciShow elsewhere on the internet? Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/scishow Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/scishow Tumblr: http://scishow.tumblr.com Instagram: http://instagram.com/thescishow ---------- Sources: https://www.khanacademy.org/economics-finance-domain/microeconomics/nash-equilibrium-tutorial http://levine.sscnet.ucla.edu/general/whatis.htm http://assets.cambridge.org/97805213/61774/sample/9780521361774ws.pdf https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qcLZMYPdpH4 http://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-1-349-20181-5_1 http://www.gametheory.net/dictionary/Game.html Image Links: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Forbes_Nash_Jr.
Views: 1885412 SciShow
THUNK - 127. Overfitting & Reference Class Forecasting
 
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Predicting the future is hard. Weirdly enough, you can sometimes do better with *less* information! -Links for the Curious- Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk (Kahneman & Tversky, 1979) - https://www.princeton.edu/~kahneman/docs/Publications/prospect_theory.pdf "Curbing Optimism Bias and Strategic Misrepresentation in Planning: Reference Class Forecasting in Practice" (Flyvbjerg, 2008) - https://www.researchgate.net/publication/233258056_Curbing_Optimism_Bias_and_Strategic_Misrepresentation_in_Planning_Reference_Class_Forecasting_in_Practice "The accuracy of hybrid estimating approaches? Case study of an Australian state road & traffic authority" (Liu, Wehbe, & Sisovic, 2010) - https://www.pmi.org/learning/library/accuracy-hybrid-reference-class-forecasting-6456
Views: 2392 THUNK
Simple Risk
 
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This module defines "simple risk," using this definition to drive an analysis of the telecommunications industry. Also discusses the limitations of this definition, especially when considering human-made incidents, versus random accidents. Uses the 1995 Oklahoma Federal Building bombing as an example of risk due to human-caused incident. Also discusses Return-On-Investment (ROI), an extension of risk that incorporates a cost-benefit factor. Finally, addresses how risk affects the decisions made by policymakers, and suggests effective ways for policymakers to get the most "bang for the buck" in terms of protecting and hardening critical infrastructure (CI). Lecture by Ted Lewis
The psychology behind irrational decisions - Sara Garofalo
 
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View full lesson: http://ed.ted.com/lessons/the-psychology-behind-irrational-decisions-sara-garofalo Often people make decisions that are not “rational” from a purely economical point of view — meaning that they don’t necessarily lead to the best result. Why is that? Are we just bad at dealing with numbers and odds? Or is there a psychological mechanism behind it? Sara Garofalo explains heuristics, problem-solving approaches based on previous experience and intuition rather than analysis. Lesson by Sara Garofalo, animation by TOGETHER.
Views: 871383 TED-Ed
Investment Decision: Analysis of Risk and Uncertainty
 
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Subject : Business Economics Paper :Principals of business finance and accounting
Views: 588 Vidya-mitra
Decision Tree Analysis IN HINDI With  Solved Practical by JOLLY Coaching
 
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This video is about DECISION TREE ANALYSIS which will help you to understand the basic concept of decision tree analysis. In this video i have solved one practical question which will help you to get the process of solving any numerical question and example. After watching you will also get to know that how to construct the decision tree. I hope this will help you. Thanks JOLLY Coaching how to solve decision tree problem, Decision tree analysis, How to solve decision tree analysis, Practical solved questios on decision tree analysis. decision threoy decision tree analysis
Views: 100930 JOLLY Coaching
Decision making under uncertainty - Example 1
 
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In this video, you will learn how to make decisions under uncertainty using Maximin, Maximax, Hurwicz, Regret and Laplace criteria.
Views: 15758 maxus knowledge
Prospect Theory
 
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Prospect theory shows that people tend to make decisions with particular biases, and understanding those biases provides fascinating insights into what influences consumer purchase decisions. Reference: Kahneman, Daniel, and Amos Tversky, 1979. Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk. Econometrica, 47(2), 263--292. visit: www.b2bwhiteboard.com
Views: 39171 B2Bwhiteboard
Decision Theory - 1 Elements of common Decision Problems
 
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#OperationsResearch #Math #Statistics #DecisionTheory #DecisionMaking #DecisionProblem #Action #StateOfNature #Outcome #ObjectiveVariable #FreeLecture #FreeStudy #Solution DECISION MAKING UNDER RISK AND UNCERTAINTY Decision Making Process Decision-making is the prerogative of management and the nature of the decisions made will vary according to the status of the manager. At board level, fundamental decisions regarding the objectives of the organization, and the development of a corporate plan to fulfill those objectives will be made. Functional and line management will be involved in operational decisions designed to ensure the successful implementation of the planning decisions. At shop floor level, foremen and line supervisors will be involved in determining the best approach to performing more specific tasks. The importance of decision-making _ the function of management must therefore be emphasised, and at the same time a set of criteria and procedures for decision-making must be specified. A formalised decision-making process is essential for efficient management of the organisation. Nature of Decisions Decision-making is concerned with the selection of the preferred course of action from a range of possibilities. The classical concept of decision-making assumes that the decision-maker: Has complete knowledge of all the possible alternative courses of action. Has complete knowledge of the consequences of taking every alternative. Can attach definite payoffs or utilities to each possible outcome. Can order the payoffs of each course of action in a unique sequence from highest to lowest payoff. With these assumptions a decision-maker can be regarded as an optimiser when he selects the alternative course of action with the highest payoff. Four Elements Common to Decision Problems: 1) Actions [Acts/Strategies]: The set of two or more alternatives the decision-maker has chosen to consider. The decision-maker's problem is to choose one action from this set. 2) States of nature: The set of two or more mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive chance events upon which the outcome of the decision-maker's chosen action depends. 3) Outcomes: The set of consequences resulting from all possible action/state of nature combinations. 4) Objective variable: The quantity used to measure and express the outcomes of a decision problem. We can identify these four specific elements of the decision problem in our example. First, a choice must be made between two possible courses of action-rent the out¬door stadium or rent the indoor stadium. Second, it is uncertain which event will occur-rain or no rain. We refer to these events as states of nature. Note that the states of nature considered in any problem must be mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive. Third, depending on which action is chosen and which state of nature occurs on the evening of the concert, the decision-maker will receive either a financial reward or a penalty for the chosen action. The consequences of the decision problem are referred to as outcomes; these may be either positive or negative. For example, if the action chosen by the promoter is Rent the outdoor stadium and the state of nature that occurs is Rain, the outcome that results is (-Rs. 2 million). The combination Rent the outdoor stadium/No rain will yield a profit of Rs. 17 million. The reward (or penalty) corresponding to each action/state of nature combination is called the outcome or payoff. Fourth, since the outcome is expressed in terms of net profit, it is objective variable here. Decision Theory, Statistical Decision Making, State of Nature, Statistics, Operations Research, MBA, MCA, BE, CA, CS, CWA, CMA, CPA, CFA, BBA, BCom, MCom, BTech, MTech, CAIIB, FIII, Graduation, Post Graduation, BSc, MSc, BA, MA, Diploma, Production, Finance, Management, Commerce, Engineering , Grade-11, Grade- 12 - www.prashantpuaar.com
Views: 25492 Prashant Puaar
MG310 Risk and Decision Analysis for Management and Policy
 
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The Department of Management offers a range of undergraduate option courses, in this short film Dr Valentina Ferretti talks about MG310 Risk and Decision Analysis for Management and Policy.
Case Studies in Decision Making - POGO8055
 
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http://programsandcourses.anu.edu.au/course/POGO8055 Public sector decision makers operate in an environment where evidence may be patchy or non-existent; there may be debate about the nature of the available evidence; there may be multiple potential decision criteria; and decisions may have a profound effect on the lives of individual citizens. Through an analysis of real life case studies, this course presents students with a series of decision-making dilemmas. Students are expected to draw on their practical experience and prior studies to identify key issues, suggest alternative courses of action and rationales for each alternative, as well as debate the advantages and disadvantages of each. ===================== http://crawford.anu.edu.au/ ===================== Video produced by the Digital Learning Project http://asiapacific.anu.edu.au/digital-learning/
Decision Tree Analysis and Risk Management
 
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a) Decision trees continue b) Ways of minimizing project risks c) Introduction to Decision analysis
Views: 1434 Project Management
Adversarial Risk Analysis  An Overview 1
 
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Adversarial Risk Analysis (ARA) is a Bayesian approach to strategic decision-making. One builds a model of one's opponents, expressing subjective uncertainty about the solution concept each opponent uses, as well as their utilities, probabilities, and capabilities.
Prospect Theory (Yale)
 
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Losses upset Investors more than gains un-upset them.
Views: 65893 Sumflows
Decision and Risk Analysis - Southampton Business School Subject Overview
 
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Professor Johnnie Johnson talking about the risk programmes available at the Southampton Business School University of Southampton.
Decision making under uncertainty - Regret / Minimax criteria
 
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In this video, you will learn how to make decisions under uncertainty using the regret criteria. This method is also known as the Minimax regret criteria.
Views: 23479 maxus knowledge
Prospect Theory
 
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Dalam video ini saya akan menerangkan tentang prospect theory dari perspective pelaburan Prospect theory ini adalah salah satu subjek dalam cabang technical analysis yang dipanggil “Behavioral Finance” Teori ini telah dicipta oleh Daniel Kahneman dan Amos Tvesky pada tahun 1979 melalui kertas kajian “Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk. Teori ini cuba menerangkan proses membuat keputusan melibatkan ketidakpastian dalam konteks psikologi dan ekonomi. Jika akan rasa video ini berguna, mohon dikongsi, komen dan subsribe channel saya
Views: 734 Firdaus Majid
Making the Best Decisions in Uncertain and Risky Business Situations
 
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Part 5 of 6. This video is about how you can make the best possible decisions in situations where you have risk and uncertainty using both optimization and simulation capabilities. You can find the full playlist here: http://youtu.be/-T-mY_M2Cx0
Views: 999 FrontlineSolvers
Risk Management Webcast Part 1: Why risk-based decision making?
 
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Canadian Conservation Institute (CCI) presents an excerpt from: "Risk management and risk-based decision making for museum, gallery, archive and historic house collections" Speaker: José Luiz Pedersoli Jr., Heritage Scientist, Scientia Pro Cultura Session: "Why risk-based decision making?" This advanced professional development workshop was held March 15-18, 2016 at CCI in Ottawa. https://www.canada.ca/en/conservation-institute/services/risk-management-heritage-collections.html
Views: 770 CCI/ICC CHIN/RCIP
3 Decision Tree Quantitative Risk Analysis Management Excel Palisade Precision Dr Mehrdad Arashpour
 
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This short video shows the process of using decision trees as a part of quantitative risk analysis and management. Microsoft Excel and Palisade Precision Tree can visually analyse different decision alternatives if there is uncertainty involved. Please subscribe to this You Tube channel (Engineering Management Academy) for weekly updated videos about engineering and project management related topics.
ME Industrial Engineering and Systems Management
 
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The two-year IESM program (a.k.a. Operations and Systems Management) is designed to provide a broad-based education in the areas of operations management, service and production systems, information technologies, and communication. Through a set of core courses, students learn the basic methods of formulating and solving problems. Attention is given to the changing nature of demands and capacities, principles of decision-making under uncertainty, risk management, quality management and assurance, effective use of information technologies, modeling and analysis of large systems, and techniques for finding optimal solutions applicable to businesses today. Fore more info please visit: http://cse.aua.am/graduate-programs/iesm/
Views: 226 CSE AUA
Decision Tree Analysis/EMV - Risk PMP Exam Prep Problem
 
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PMP Exam Audio Prep: http://praizion.com Our project management courses are credit eligible for contact hours or professional development units (PDUs). Participants studying for the PMP® exam can claim the contact hours earned to satisfy PMI's eligibility requirements for the PMP® exam. Project managers seeking to maintain their PMP certification can claim the PDUs earned to satisfy PMI's Continuing Certification Requirements. Mission Statement At Praizion Media, our goal is to significantly enhance core competency in project management and equip participants with the necessary tools and skills to hit--the-ground-running in their project work. We are committed to providing clear understanding of the PMBOK® Guide, project management, project management tools, techniques and concepts to participants worldwide. With a mind-set of quality and excellence, we strive to: • Uphold the project management methodology advocated by the Project Management Institute (PMI®). • Present real world project management concepts and examples in an accessible, understandable framework. • Provide PMP® candidates with a mechanism to gauge understanding and preparedness for the PMP® exam. • Reinforce project management sensibility through targetted learning instruction.
Views: 5352 Praizion
Risk Management - Cost-Benifit Analysis of Risk Treatments
 
03:41
In this session I want to talk about the cost-benefit analysis for risk treatments. When we have a risk and it is determined that it exceeds our risk appetite and therefore we need to do something about it, we then need to look at treatments
Views: 1218 Paladin Risk
Financial Crises and Risk Undergraduate Economics Course with Ariel Zetlin Jones
 
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This elective course is offered to Undergraduate Economics students. The instructor is Ariel Zetlin-Jones, Associate Professor of Economics. Financial Crises and Risk provides an in-depth examination of the causes of financial crises as well as what governments can do to prevent them or at least reduce their cost. Video Transcript: On a day-to-day basis, we all interact with financial markets of various kinds. Whether we're using our credit card, whether we're using our debit card issued by our bank, writing a check, we all use various instruments that financial markets create and/or buy insurance or other projects financial markets offer to us. So at a basic level, all of us are consumers of financial marketing institutions and everyone should understand what financial market institutions do and provide for consumers. And so we start by doing an in-depth analysis of how consumers make decisions under uncertainty. What we then do is apply all of this rich knowledge that builds again off of our economics training throughout our principles and intermediate courses to explain kind of the roles financial markets play and what data from financial markets can tell us about consumers. What we see is a lot of these roles come from the value added banks provide for consumers naturally exposes them to risk of collapse. Unfortunately, a lot of this risk of collapse seems to happen across a lot of banks at the same time within a given country or across multiple countries. And once we understand the tradeoffs involved, that banks create value for consumers, but they also are subject to their own risks, then we can start understanding better how policies are and should be designed to manage these risks. We need to know wages in the current future period and we need to know interest rates. I hope students walk away with a clear understanding of the roles financial markets play, both in their day-to-day lives and in the broader society, and I hope more than anything that they've learned another example of how to think about the tradeoffs involved with particular economic policies or individual choices they're making in a much more complicated environment. Since the financial crisis, there's massive amounts of innovation going on in the financial market space, so I would also say innovators should really be interested in financial crisis. So we think about cryptocurrencies and how that's reshaping financial markets, we think about lots of other innovations in Fintech. And if you want to understand kind of what are the roles that traditional financial institutions like banks play, and understand where there's space for innovation, and interesting, exciting opportunities to create value for society, this is a course that you should be taking.
Views: 93 TepperCMU

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