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Decision Making Under Risks in Hindi with Practical solved Example by JOLLY Coaching
 
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This video is about DECISION THEORY of OPERATION RESEARCH which includes certain Methods of decision theory like : minimax, maximin , maximax , minimax regret , laplace and hurwicz. All this methods are explained in detail with the help of solved numerical. This video will help you to understand this methods and ultimately you are able to solve any question of decision theory. I hope this video will be a helpful thing for you to understand the basic concept of decision theory and its methods. Thanks. JOLLY Coaching. DECISION MAKING UNDER RISK AND UNCERTAINTY Decision Making Process Decision-making is the prerogative of management and the nature of the decisions made will vary according to the status of the manager. At board level, fundamental decisions regarding the objectives of the organization, and the development of a corporate plan to fulfill those objectives will be made. Functional and line management will be involved in operational decisions designed to ensure the successful implementation of the planning decisions. At shop floor level, foremen and line supervisors will be involved in determining the best approach to performing more specific tasks. The importance of decision-making _ the function of management must therefore be emphasised, and at the same time a set of criteria and procedures for decision-making must be specified. A formalised decision-making process is essential for efficient management of the organisation. Nature of Decisions Decision-making is concerned with the selection of the preferred course of action from a range of possibilities. The classical concept of decision-making assumes that the decision-maker: Has complete knowledge of all the possible alternative courses of action. Has complete knowledge of the consequences of taking every alternative. Can attach definite payoffs or utilities to each possible outcome. Can order the payoffs of each course of action in a unique sequence from highest to lowest payoff. With these assumptions a decision-maker can be regarded as an optimiser when he selects the alternative course of action with the highest payoff. Four Elements Common to Decision Problems: 1) Actions [Acts/Strategies]: The set of two or more alternatives the decision-maker has chosen to consider. The decision-maker's problem is to choose one action from this set. 2) States of nature: The set of two or more mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive chance events upon which the outcome of the decision-maker's chosen action depends. 3) Outcomes: The set of consequences resulting from all possible action/state of nature combinations. 4) Objective variable: The quantity used to measure and express the outcomes of a decision problem. We can identify these four specific elements of the decision problem in our example. First, a choice must be made between two possible courses of action-rent the out¬door stadium or rent the indoor stadium. Second, it is uncertain which event will occur-rain or no rain. We refer to these events as states of nature. Note that the states of nature considered in any problem must be mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive. Third, depending on which action is chosen and which state of nature occurs on the evening of the concert, the decision-maker will receive either a financial reward or a penalty for the chosen action. The consequences of the decision problem are referred to as outcomes; these may be either positive or negative. For example, if the action chosen by the promoter is Rent the outdoor stadium and the state of nature that occurs is Rain, the outcome that results is (-Rs. 2 million). The combination Rent the outdoor stadium/No rain will yield a profit of Rs. 17 million. The reward (or penalty) corresponding to each action/state of nature combination is called the outcome or payoff. Fourth, since the outcome is expressed in terms of net profit, it is objective variable here. Decision Theory, Statistical Decision Making, State of Nature, Statistics, Operations Research, MBA, MCA, BE, CA, CS, CWA, CMA, CPA, CFA, BBA, BCom, MCom, BTech, MTech, CAIIB, FIII, Graduation, Post Graduation, BSc, MSc, BA, MA, Diploma, Production, Finance, Management, Commerce, Engineering , Grade-11, Grade- 12. How to solve decision Theory Practically. Decision Theory numerical question. Decision Theory in operation research. Decision Theory in OP. SOLVING DECISION THEORY. DECISION TREE ANALYSIS. OPERATION RESEARCH. DECISION THEORY. decision theory in hindi. decision theory statistics. decision theory problems. decision theory under uncertainty. decision theory kauser wise
Views: 60702 JOLLY Coaching
Decision Analysis Part-1 | Decisions Under Uncertainty/Risk & Sensitivity Analysis
 
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Includes, - steps for decision analysis - decisions under uncertainty - decisions under risk - sensitivity analysis - decision trees - minimax, maxmin, realism (hurwicz), equally likely, and minimax regret criteria - expected monetary value (emv) calculation Playlist: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PL34t5iLfZddtKi93_8Sd0KwwuABmgwbDS
Views: 14959 Bharatendra Rai
Decision Analysis 2: EMV & EVPI - Expected Value & Perfect Information
 
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In this tutorial, we discuss Decision Making With Probabilities (Decision Making under Risk). We calculate Expected Monetary Value (EMV) and Expected Value of Perfect Information (EVPI). Other videos: Decision Analysis 1: Maximax, Maximin, Minimax Regret https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NQ-mYn9fPag Decision Analysis 2: Equally Likely (Laplace) and Realism (Hurwicz) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zlblUq9Dd14 Decision Analysis 4: Decision Trees 1 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ydvnVw80I_8 Decision Analysis 5: EVSI - Expected Value of Sample Information https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FUY07dvaUuE
Views: 216657 Joshua Emmanuel
Decision Analysis 1: Maximax, Maximin, Minimax Regret
 
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For an example where payoffs are costs please see: https://youtu.be/ajkXzvVegBk Decision Making Without Probabilities Part 1. This brief video explains the components of the Payoff Table and the systematic approaches involved in making decisions under uncertainty: Maximax (Optimistic) Maximin (Pessimistic or Conservative) Minimax Regret Other videos: Other videos: Decision Analysis 1.1 (Costs): Maximax, Maximin, Minimax Regret https://youtu.be/ajkXzvVegBk Decision Analysis 2.1: Equally Likely (Laplace) and Realism (Hurwicz) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zlblUq9Dd14 Decision Analysis 2: EMV & EVPI - Expected Value & Perfect Information https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tbv9E9D2BRQ Decision Analysis 3: Decision Trees 1 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ydvnVw80I_8 Decision Analysis 4: EVSI - Expected Value of Sample Information https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FUY07dvaUuE Decision Analysis 5: Posterior Probability Calculations https://youtu.be/FpKiHpYnY_I
Views: 291284 Joshua Emmanuel
Decision making under uncertainty
 
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This video explains how uncertainty in our environment affects our decision making.
Using Decision Trees for Risk Analysis
 
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This video provides an explanation and example of how to create a decision tree for risk analysis. I created this video with the YouTube Video Editor (https://www.youtube.com/editor)
Views: 38882 Risk Precis
14. Quantifying Uncertainty and Risk
 
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Financial Theory (ECON 251) Until now, the models we've used in this course have focused on the case where everyone can perfectly forecast future economic conditions. Clearly, to understand financial markets, we have to incorporate uncertainty into these models. The first half of this lecture continues reviewing the key statistical concepts that we'll need to be able to think seriously about uncertainty, including expectation, variance, and covariance. We apply these concepts to show how diversification can reduce risk exposure. Next we show how expectations can be iterated through time to rapidly compute conditional expectations: if you think the Yankees have a 60% chance of winning any game against the Dodgers, what are the odds the Yankees will win a seven game series once they are up 2 games to 1? Finally we allow the interest rate, the most important variable in the economy according to Irving Fisher, to be uncertain. We ask whether interest rate uncertainty tends to make a dollar in the distant future more valuable or less valuable. 00:00 - Chapter 1. Expectation, Variance, and Covariance 19:06 - Chapter 2. Diversification and Risk Exposure 33:54 - Chapter 3. Conditional Expectation 53:39 - Chapter 4. Uncertainty in Interest Rates Complete course materials are available at the Open Yale Courses website: http://open.yale.edu/courses This course was recorded in Fall 2009.
Views: 36727 YaleCourses
Investment Decision : Analysis Of Risk And Uncertainty
 
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Subject :Business Economics Course :Post Graduate Keyword : SWAYAMPRABHA
Decision analysis part 1
 
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The objective is to understand type I and type II errors and the misleading use of hindsight to evaluate mortgage decisions. The American Housing Finance System course: http://mruniversity.com/courses/american-housing-finance-system Ask a question about the video: http://mruniversity.com/courses/american-housing-finance-system/decision-analysis-part-1#QandA Next video: http://mruniversity.com/courses/american-housing-finance-system/decision-analysis-part-2 Help us caption & translate this video! http://amara.org/v/HMPm/
Decision Tree Tutorial in 7 minutes with Decision Tree Analysis & Decision Tree Example (Basic)
 
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Clicked here http://www.MBAbullshit.com/ and OMG wow! I'm SHOCKED how easy.. No wonder others goin crazy sharing this??? Share it with your other friends too! Fun MBAbullshit.com is filled with easy quick video tutorial reviews on topics for MBA, BBA, and business college students on lots of topics from Finance or Financial Management, Quantitative Analysis, Managerial Economics, Strategic Management, Accounting, and many others. Cut through the bullshit to understand MBA!(Coming soon!) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a5yWr1hr6QY
Views: 517712 MBAbullshitDotCom
Hazard, Risk & Safety - Understanding Risk Assessment, Management and Perception
 
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(subtitles available in English, French, Dutch, Spanish, Chinese and Russian, German, and a French version is available here: https://youtu.be/wRmfvFYDNr8) Hazard, Risk & Safety Danger, risques et sécurité Gevaar, risico's en veiligheid Peligro, riesgo y seguridad Опасность, риск и безопасность Gefahr, Risiko und Sicherheit We all hear these terms on a daily basis. So and so a chemical, physical or a biological agent poses a risk; This or that product is a hazard or behaving a certain way is unsafe. A lot of the time “hazard” and “risk” are freely used to mean the same thing. However they are not. Hazard is the potential to cause harm. Risk on the other hand is the likelihood of harm in defined circumstances. In a nutshell, hazard and risk are not always aligned as the risk depends on the exposure to the hazard ; similarly, risk, safety and perception of risk are not always aligned; this can make political decisions regarding safety levels difficult to make, in these cases it is especially important to base them on facts rather than on subjective perceptions. http://www.greenfacts.org
Views: 355693 GreenFacts.org
2) Risk, Risk Informed Decision Making, Risk Analysis and Management
 
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Define and understand the differences and relationships between risk, risk informed decision making and risk analysis and management
Views: 388 Ernest Forman
Decision Tree Analysis/EMV - Risk PMP Exam Prep Problem
 
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PMP Exam Audio Prep: http://praizion.com Our project management courses are credit eligible for contact hours or professional development units (PDUs). Participants studying for the PMP® exam can claim the contact hours earned to satisfy PMI's eligibility requirements for the PMP® exam. Project managers seeking to maintain their PMP certification can claim the PDUs earned to satisfy PMI's Continuing Certification Requirements. Mission Statement At Praizion Media, our goal is to significantly enhance core competency in project management and equip participants with the necessary tools and skills to hit--the-ground-running in their project work. We are committed to providing clear understanding of the PMBOK® Guide, project management, project management tools, techniques and concepts to participants worldwide. With a mind-set of quality and excellence, we strive to: • Uphold the project management methodology advocated by the Project Management Institute (PMI®). • Present real world project management concepts and examples in an accessible, understandable framework. • Provide PMP® candidates with a mechanism to gauge understanding and preparedness for the PMP® exam. • Reinforce project management sensibility through targetted learning instruction.
Views: 4506 Praizion
3 Decision Tree Quantitative Risk Analysis Management Excel Palisade Precision Dr Mehrdad Arashpour
 
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This short video shows the process of using decision trees as a part of quantitative risk analysis and management. Microsoft Excel and Palisade Precision Tree can visually analyse different decision alternatives if there is uncertainty involved. Please subscribe to this You Tube channel (Engineering Management Academy) for weekly updated videos about engineering and project management related topics.
Decision Tree Analysis IN HINDI With  Solved Practical by JOLLY Coaching
 
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This video is about DECISION TREE ANALYSIS which will help you to understand the basic concept of decision tree analysis. In this video i have solved one practical question which will help you to get the process of solving any numerical question and example. After watching you will also get to know that how to construct the decision tree. I hope this will help you. Thanks JOLLY Coaching how to solve decision tree problem, Decision tree analysis, How to solve decision tree analysis, Practical solved questios on decision tree analysis. decision threoy decision tree analysis
Views: 71901 JOLLY Coaching
Lesson 6 video 1: Risk, Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis
 
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In this and next videos I will explain how to incorporate risk and uncertainty in the economic evaluation of projects for the purpose of investment. I will explain how you can apply the sensitivity analysis techniques to evaluate the projects in this case. There are several quantitative methods for incorporating risk and uncertainty. I will explain two of these methods: 1) Sensitivity analysis or probabilistic sensitivity analysis 2)Expected value or expected net present value
Views: 7133 F. Tayari
Decision Theory #2- Decision Making Under Uncertainty
 
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I hope you found this video useful, please subscribe for daily videos! WBM Foundations: Mathematical logic Set theory Algebra: Number theory Group theory Lie groups Commutative rings Associative ring theory Nonassociative ring theory Field theory General algebraic systems Algebraic geometry Linear algebra Category theory K-theory Combinatorics and Discrete Mathematics Ordered sets Geometry Geometry Convex and discrete geometry Differential geometry General topology Algebraic topology Manifolds Analysis Calculus and Real Analysis: Real functions Measure theory and integration Special functions Finite differences and functional equations Sequences and series Complex analysis Complex variables Potential theory Multiple complex variables Differential and integral equations Ordinary differential equations Partial differential equations Dynamical systems Integral equations Calculus of variations and optimization Global analysis, analysis on manifolds Functional analysis Functional analysis Fourier analysis Abstract harmonic analysis Integral transforms Operator theory Numerical analysis and optimization Numerical analysis Approximations and expansions Operations research Probability and statistics Probability theory Statistics Computer Science Computer science Information and communication Applied mathematics Mechanics of particles and systems Mechanics of solids Fluid mechanics Optics, electromagnetic theory Classical thermodynamics, heat transfer Quantum Theory Statistical mechanics, structure of matter Relativity and gravitational theory Astronomy and astrophysics Geophysics applications Systems theory Other sciences Category
Views: 35867 WelshBeastMaths
Utility and Risk Preferences Part 1 - Utility Function
 
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Video for computing utility numerically https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0K-u9dpRiUQ More videos at http://facpub.stjohns.edu/~moyr/videoonyoutube.htm
Views: 155506 Ronald Moy
Risk Analysis in Capital Budgeting - Introduction
 
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"Install our android app CARAJACLASSES to view lectures direct in your mobile - https://bit.ly/2S1oPM6 " Join my Whatsapp Broadcast / Group to receive daily lectures on similar topics through this Whatsapp direct link https://wa.me/917736022001 by simply messaging YOUTUBE LECTURES Did you liked this video lecture? Then please check out the complete course related to this lecture, ADVANCED FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT with 190+ Lectures, 24+ hours content available at discounted price (10% off)with life time validity and certificate of completion. Enrollment Link For Students Outside India: https://bit.ly/2N7P5BX Enrollment Link For Students From India: https://www.instamojo.com/caraja/advanced-financial-management-a-complete-stu/?discount=inyafmacs3 Our website link : https://www.carajaclasses.com Welcome to this course on Advanced Financial Management - A Comprehensive Study. In this course you will be expose to the advanced concepts of Financial Management covering a) Mergers and Acquisitions. b) Capital Market Instruments c) Advanced Capital Budgeting Techniques. d) Risk Analysis in Capital Budgeting e) Sensitivity and Scenario Analysis in Capital Budgeting f) Leasing g) Basics of Derivatives. h) Portfolio Management - Quantitative Techniques. i) Dividend Decisions. The above topics were also available as separate courses. By taking this course, you need not take the separate courses taught by me in the above names. This course is structured keeping Professional course students in mind like CA / CPA / CFA / CMA / MBA Finance, etc. This course will equip you for approaching those professional examinations. This course is presented in simple language with examples. This course has video lectures (with writings on Black / Green Board / Note book, etc). You would feel you are attending a real class. This course is structured in self paced learning style. You would require good internet connection for interruption free learning process. You have to go through the videos leisurely to grab the concepts with clarity. Take this course to gain strong hold on Advanced Concepts in Financial Management. • Category: Business What's in the Course? 1. Over 143 lectures and 16.5 hours of content! 2. Understand Mergers and Acquistions. 3. Understand Advanced Capital Budgeting Techniques 4. Understand Risk Analysis in Capital Budgeting 5. Understand Sensitivity and Scenario Analysis in Capital Budgeting 6. Understand Leasing 7. Understand Dividend Decisions 8. Understand Basics of Derivative Instruments 9. Understand Portfolio Management - Quanitative Techniques Course Requirements: 1. Basic knowledge in Financial Management 2. Basic Knowledge in Accounting Who Should Attend? 1. Professional Course students taking up courses like CA / CPA / CMA / CFA / CIMA / MBA Finance 2. Finance Professionals
Views: 12734 CARAJACLASSES
Prospect Theory
 
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Dalam video ini saya akan menerangkan tentang prospect theory dari perspective pelaburan Prospect theory ini adalah salah satu subjek dalam cabang technical analysis yang dipanggil “Behavioral Finance” Teori ini telah dicipta oleh Daniel Kahneman dan Amos Tvesky pada tahun 1979 melalui kertas kajian “Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk. Teori ini cuba menerangkan proses membuat keputusan melibatkan ketidakpastian dalam konteks psikologi dan ekonomi. Jika akan rasa video ini berguna, mohon dikongsi, komen dan subsribe channel saya
Views: 716 Firdaus Majid
The psychology behind irrational decisions - Sara Garofalo
 
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View full lesson: http://ed.ted.com/lessons/the-psychology-behind-irrational-decisions-sara-garofalo Often people make decisions that are not “rational” from a purely economical point of view — meaning that they don’t necessarily lead to the best result. Why is that? Are we just bad at dealing with numbers and odds? Or is there a psychological mechanism behind it? Sara Garofalo explains heuristics, problem-solving approaches based on previous experience and intuition rather than analysis. Lesson by Sara Garofalo, animation by TOGETHER.
Views: 827995 TED-Ed
Investment Decision: Analysis of Risk and Uncertainty
 
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Subject : Business Economics Paper :Principals of business finance and accounting
Views: 533 Vidya-mitra
Risk Analysis in capial Budgeting - SD Case Study
 
09:25
"Install our android app CARAJACLASSES to view lectures direct in your mobile - https://bit.ly/2S1oPM6 " Join my Whatsapp Broadcast / Group to receive daily lectures on similar topics through this Whatsapp direct link https://wa.me/917736022001 by simply messaging YOUTUBE LECTURES Did you liked this video lecture? Then please check out the complete course related to this lecture, ADVANCED FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT with 190+ Lectures, 24+ hours content available at discounted price (10% off)with life time validity and certificate of completion. Enrollment Link For Students Outside India: https://bit.ly/2N7P5BX Enrollment Link For Students From India: https://www.instamojo.com/caraja/advanced-financial-management-a-complete-stu/?discount=inyafmacs3 Our website link : https://www.carajaclasses.com Welcome to this course on Advanced Financial Management - A Comprehensive Study. In this course you will be expose to the advanced concepts of Financial Management covering a) Mergers and Acquisitions. b) Capital Market Instruments c) Advanced Capital Budgeting Techniques. d) Risk Analysis in Capital Budgeting e) Sensitivity and Scenario Analysis in Capital Budgeting f) Leasing g) Basics of Derivatives. h) Portfolio Management - Quantitative Techniques. i) Dividend Decisions. The above topics were also available as separate courses. By taking this course, you need not take the separate courses taught by me in the above names. This course is structured keeping Professional course students in mind like CA / CPA / CFA / CMA / MBA Finance, etc. This course will equip you for approaching those professional examinations. This course is presented in simple language with examples. This course has video lectures (with writings on Black / Green Board / Note book, etc). You would feel you are attending a real class. This course is structured in self paced learning style. You would require good internet connection for interruption free learning process. You have to go through the videos leisurely to grab the concepts with clarity. Take this course to gain strong hold on Advanced Concepts in Financial Management. • Category: Business What's in the Course? 1. Over 143 lectures and 16.5 hours of content! 2. Understand Mergers and Acquistions. 3. Understand Advanced Capital Budgeting Techniques 4. Understand Risk Analysis in Capital Budgeting 5. Understand Sensitivity and Scenario Analysis in Capital Budgeting 6. Understand Leasing 7. Understand Dividend Decisions 8. Understand Basics of Derivative Instruments 9. Understand Portfolio Management - Quanitative Techniques Course Requirements: 1. Basic knowledge in Financial Management 2. Basic Knowledge in Accounting Who Should Attend? 1. Professional Course students taking up courses like CA / CPA / CMA / CFA / CIMA / MBA Finance 2. Finance Professionals
Views: 4711 CARAJACLASSES
Decision Theory - 1 Elements of common Decision Problems
 
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#OperationsResearch #Math #Statistics #DecisionTheory #DecisionMaking #DecisionProblem #Action #StateOfNature #Outcome #ObjectiveVariable #FreeLecture #FreeStudy #Solution DECISION MAKING UNDER RISK AND UNCERTAINTY Decision Making Process Decision-making is the prerogative of management and the nature of the decisions made will vary according to the status of the manager. At board level, fundamental decisions regarding the objectives of the organization, and the development of a corporate plan to fulfill those objectives will be made. Functional and line management will be involved in operational decisions designed to ensure the successful implementation of the planning decisions. At shop floor level, foremen and line supervisors will be involved in determining the best approach to performing more specific tasks. The importance of decision-making _ the function of management must therefore be emphasised, and at the same time a set of criteria and procedures for decision-making must be specified. A formalised decision-making process is essential for efficient management of the organisation. Nature of Decisions Decision-making is concerned with the selection of the preferred course of action from a range of possibilities. The classical concept of decision-making assumes that the decision-maker: Has complete knowledge of all the possible alternative courses of action. Has complete knowledge of the consequences of taking every alternative. Can attach definite payoffs or utilities to each possible outcome. Can order the payoffs of each course of action in a unique sequence from highest to lowest payoff. With these assumptions a decision-maker can be regarded as an optimiser when he selects the alternative course of action with the highest payoff. Four Elements Common to Decision Problems: 1) Actions [Acts/Strategies]: The set of two or more alternatives the decision-maker has chosen to consider. The decision-maker's problem is to choose one action from this set. 2) States of nature: The set of two or more mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive chance events upon which the outcome of the decision-maker's chosen action depends. 3) Outcomes: The set of consequences resulting from all possible action/state of nature combinations. 4) Objective variable: The quantity used to measure and express the outcomes of a decision problem. We can identify these four specific elements of the decision problem in our example. First, a choice must be made between two possible courses of action-rent the out¬door stadium or rent the indoor stadium. Second, it is uncertain which event will occur-rain or no rain. We refer to these events as states of nature. Note that the states of nature considered in any problem must be mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive. Third, depending on which action is chosen and which state of nature occurs on the evening of the concert, the decision-maker will receive either a financial reward or a penalty for the chosen action. The consequences of the decision problem are referred to as outcomes; these may be either positive or negative. For example, if the action chosen by the promoter is Rent the outdoor stadium and the state of nature that occurs is Rain, the outcome that results is (-Rs. 2 million). The combination Rent the outdoor stadium/No rain will yield a profit of Rs. 17 million. The reward (or penalty) corresponding to each action/state of nature combination is called the outcome or payoff. Fourth, since the outcome is expressed in terms of net profit, it is objective variable here. Decision Theory, Statistical Decision Making, State of Nature, Statistics, Operations Research, MBA, MCA, BE, CA, CS, CWA, CMA, CPA, CFA, BBA, BCom, MCom, BTech, MTech, CAIIB, FIII, Graduation, Post Graduation, BSc, MSc, BA, MA, Diploma, Production, Finance, Management, Commerce, Engineering , Grade-11, Grade- 12 - www.prashantpuaar.com
Views: 23120 Prashant Puaar
THUNK - 127. Overfitting & Reference Class Forecasting
 
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Predicting the future is hard. Weirdly enough, you can sometimes do better with *less* information! -Links for the Curious- Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk (Kahneman & Tversky, 1979) - https://www.princeton.edu/~kahneman/docs/Publications/prospect_theory.pdf "Curbing Optimism Bias and Strategic Misrepresentation in Planning: Reference Class Forecasting in Practice" (Flyvbjerg, 2008) - https://www.researchgate.net/publication/233258056_Curbing_Optimism_Bias_and_Strategic_Misrepresentation_in_Planning_Reference_Class_Forecasting_in_Practice "The accuracy of hybrid estimating approaches? Case study of an Australian state road & traffic authority" (Liu, Wehbe, & Sisovic, 2010) - https://www.pmi.org/learning/library/accuracy-hybrid-reference-class-forecasting-6456
Views: 2339 THUNK
Decision making | Processing the Environment | MCAT | Khan Academy
 
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Learn about common heuristics, biases, and other factors that affect our decisions. Created by Carole Yue. Watch the next lesson: https://www.khanacademy.org/test-prep/mcat/processing-the-environment/cognition/v/semantic-networks-and-spreading-activation?utm_source=YT&utm_medium=Desc&utm_campaign=mcat Missed the previous lesson? https://www.khanacademy.org/test-prep/mcat/processing-the-environment/cognition/v/problem-solving?utm_source=YT&utm_medium=Desc&utm_campaign=mcat MCAT on Khan Academy: Go ahead and practice some passage-based questions! About Khan Academy: Khan Academy offers practice exercises, instructional videos, and a personalized learning dashboard that empower learners to study at their own pace in and outside of the classroom. We tackle math, science, computer programming, history, art history, economics, and more. Our math missions guide learners from kindergarten to calculus using state-of-the-art, adaptive technology that identifies strengths and learning gaps. We've also partnered with institutions like NASA, The Museum of Modern Art, The California Academy of Sciences, and MIT to offer specialized content. For free. For everyone. Forever. #YouCanLearnAnything Subscribe to Khan Academy’s MCAT channel: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCDkK5wqSuwDlJ3_nl3rgdiQ?sub_confirmation=1 Subscribe to Khan Academy: https://www.youtube.com/subscription_center?add_user=khanacademy
Views: 91107 khanacademymedicine
Prospect Theory
 
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Prospect theory shows that people tend to make decisions with particular biases, and understanding those biases provides fascinating insights into what influences consumer purchase decisions. Reference: Kahneman, Daniel, and Amos Tversky, 1979. Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk. Econometrica, 47(2), 263--292. visit: www.b2bwhiteboard.com
Views: 38047 B2Bwhiteboard
Matteo Pozzi: Risk Analysis & Decision Making: Civil Infrastructure Systems
 
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Matteo Pozzi, Assistant Professor of Civil and Environmental Engineering, uses micro air vehicles to decide how best to maintain wind farms and other civil infrastructure systems over time.
17. Project Risk Analysis
 
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Risk Analysis can be complex, as you'll need to draw on detailed information such as project plans, financial data, security protocols, marketing forecasts, and ... PLEASE REFER THE LINKS AS FOLLOW IF YOU NEED LEARN MORE: - You Can Ace Your PMP® Exam With The World’s Most Popular PMP® Video Training Course! : http://bit.ly/2AnUnGh - The PMI-ACP® Exam Simulator Features : http://bit.ly/2k7GuoW - CAPM® Exam Prep and CAPM® Exam Simulator : http://bit.ly/2Af7dWC - Free PMI-ACP® Exam Simulator : http://bit.ly/2nixIWw - The CAPM® Exam Simulator Features : http://bit.ly/2Ah2qUE - The PMP Exam is Changing in 2018 : http://bit.ly/2AmSk5f - PMP Exam Prep Essentials Overview Your Condensed PMP® Exam Prep Study Guide : http://bit.ly/2ngB8ZQ - eBook The PMP Exam Prep Essentials Study Guide : http://bit.ly/2ngB8ZQ - The PMP Exam Printable FlashCards (PDF FlashCards Only) : http://bit.ly/2ByCiTE - The PMP Exam eFlashCards (Portable eFlashCards Only) : http://bit.ly/2i3lUBQ - The PMP Exam FlashCards (eFlashCards & PDF Bundle) : http://bit.ly/2BAEuKr - PMP Exam Formula Study Guide (Free, Redacted Version) : http://bit.ly/2kbPoBU - The PM StudyCoach (For PMBOK Guide 5th Edition) : http://bit.ly/2Bnn035 - The PDU Podcast (Year 3) : http://bit.ly/2AmAY65 - Earn PDUs with The PM PrepCast : http://bit.ly/2zAXgjc - Earn PDUs with The Agile PrepCast : http://bit.ly/2Alns2n - The PM PrepCast (For PMBOK Guide 5th Edition) : http://bit.ly/2ipC5NZ - The Free Agile PrepCast : http://bit.ly/2kd0VRl - The Agile PrepCast : http://bit.ly/2nieb8w - The PDU Podcast (Year 2) : http://bit.ly/2Af9qRU - The PDU Podcast (Year 1) : http://bit.ly/2Af9ykm - The Free PM PrepCast - Sample Videos and Free PMP Exam Prep Material : http://bit.ly/2k9tBuK - The PDU Podcast (Monthly Subscription) : http://bit.ly/2ne1uLO - PMP Exam Formula Study Guide : http://bit.ly/2ALYfRU
Decision making under uncertainty - Regret / Minimax criteria
 
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In this video, you will learn how to make decisions under uncertainty using the regret criteria. This method is also known as the Minimax regret criteria.
Views: 23117 maxus knowledge
Risk Analysis and Decision making
 
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Views: 460 Suhazwani Ali
Decision making under uncertainty - Example 1
 
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In this video, you will learn how to make decisions under uncertainty using Maximin, Maximax, Hurwicz, Regret and Laplace criteria.
Views: 15248 maxus knowledge
Risk and Uncertainty - Risk Analysis Fundamentals
 
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Reservoir Engineering Economics and Planning Risk and Uncertainty - Risk Analysis Fundamentals
MG310 Risk and Decision Analysis for Management and Policy
 
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The Department of Management offers a range of undergraduate option courses, in this short film Dr Valentina Ferretti talks about MG310 Risk and Decision Analysis for Management and Policy.
Risk Analysis and Strategic Decision Making
 
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http://bit.ly/b9Qxd7 David Matheson, President and CEO of SmartOrg speaks about the problem of identifying genuine value buyers for your business and other great business leadership insights and strategies. SmartOrg, Inc. Is a leading provider of decision support process and software that optimize the economic value of R&D, New Product Development and Innovation. Customers include Boeing Commercial Airplanes, Chevron Technology Company, Dow AgroSciences, Hewlett-Packard, Sara Lee and like companies in the U.S. and Europe. The screenshots in this interview are from Portfolio Navigator™, an enterprise-level software application. Watch the full video interview here @ http://www.meettheboss.tv
Views: 792 petrushansen
Decision Tree Analysis and Risk Management
 
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a) Decision trees continue b) Ways of minimizing project risks c) Introduction to Decision analysis
Views: 1298 Project Management
Adversarial Risk Analysis  An Overview 1
 
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Adversarial Risk Analysis (ARA) is a Bayesian approach to strategic decision-making. One builds a model of one's opponents, expressing subjective uncertainty about the solution concept each opponent uses, as well as their utilities, probabilities, and capabilities.
RISK ANALYSIS AND DECISION MAKING
 
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This video about how to manage physical assets-- Created using PowToon -- Free sign up at http://www.powtoon.com/youtube/ -- Create animated videos and animated presentations for free. PowToon is a free tool that allows you to develop cool animated clips and animated presentations for your website, office meeting, sales pitch, nonprofit fundraiser, product launch, video resume, or anything else you could use an animated explainer video. PowToon's animation templates help you create animated presentations and animated explainer videos from scratch. Anyone can produce awesome animations quickly with PowToon, without the cost or hassle other professional animation services require.
Views: 110 miss nadia
Critical Thinking and Problem Solving: Make Better Decisions ✓
 
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✅Join me and 5,000 others at LIG so I can show you how you can transform your career. Registrations are now open again; https://goo.gl/Z95zVB Watch next: One Simple Talk That May Change Your Career and Life: https://youtu.be/R-PAfs_4un8 This week we dive deep on critical thinking and how it applies to problem-solving! Your future is nothing but the outcome of the decisions you make today. You make better decisions today, your future will be more prosperous, you make the wrong ones, then your future will be full of struggles. So, today we are going to talk about critical thinking and how it applies to problem-solving. I’ll give you a weird analogy here. Critical thinking ability is like having infrared goggles and looking at the sky at night. Without it, You look at the space, you see only three things, you see darkness, stars, and sometimes planets. But the moment You put on your infrared goggles then you get to see all these beautiful things that were invisible before. You see giant gas clouds in the galaxy, you see dust, you see all these things that were previously impossible to see. That’s what critical thinking is. It lets you identify the actual problems, the root causes, but also it helps you see the opportunities. Now, critical thinking isn’t only applicable to your work. It’s applicable to every single area of your life. But my channel is all about your career. So, that’s what’ll cover in this video. Now, we need a framework. And the framework starts with Problem Statement. The problem statement is very similar to a project charter. It includes; Goals, as in what are you trying to achieve, your success criteria, as in how will I know I succeeded or failed, your assumptions, timelines, and stakeholders involved. It’s very similar to a project charter. I am actually going to call this Problem Charter. This document is very helpful for two reasons. The second reason being a lot more important than the first. The first reason why it’s very helpful is that when you get engaged in that problem solving mode, you start uncovering a lot of other symptoms, that may be caused by completely other root causes. We are not interested in that at that moment. You will document those, but you are not going to develop solution alternatives and develop action plans for those. Unless there are dependencies. So, it helps you understand your scope, who to deal with, the timelines, it basically keeps everything under control. But to be honest, in my decade long consulting career, I noticed that the biggest help of having such a charter is all about moving through the bureaucracy. Let me explain. When you are going through problem-solving stages, you actually do a lot of work, you summon meetings, you request data from various departments, you request for expertise from consultants, so you are shaking things, you are moving things around. Now, what gives you the power to do it? What gives you the power to call all these people to a meeting room, what gives you the power to ask for certain analytics data from a completely different department? Why should they attend that meeting or give you the data you want? Because they like you and they want to help you? What if they don’t like you. Now if you are a senior employee, you are a manager, director, VP, then fine, of course, everyone will come into the meeting or give you the data you want. But if you are not that senior. Where does your power come from? It comes from that document. The problem charter. Corporate companies aren’t usually very agile. They move slowly and the employees are usually very – they are not lazy but they push back –They don’t want to stop what they are doing and join your little problem-solving brainstorm session and go through your little power point of fishbone analysis. They got their own thing to worry about. So, if you have your problem charter, only a few pages, signed off by a sponsor, someone senior, then you have the power to get the data you want and bring in experts and call for meetings. Ok, now let’s continue; I mean you developed the problem statement, you got your buy-in from someone senior, now, you are off to solve the problem. The 2nd step in your critical thinking towards a problem is identifying the root causes, right? 5 Whys is made famous by Toyota Production System. As the name suggests, you ask WHY WHY WHY until you get to a root cause. Very simple stuff. This video covers; critical thinking critical thinking skills what is critical thinking critical thinking steps deep thinking how to think critically critical thinking and problem solving importance of critical thinking what does critical thinking mean characteristics of a critical thinker how to improve critical thinking problem solving problem solving skills problem solving examples with samples . Images: NASA Music credit: DJ Regard
Views: 62902 Deniz Sasal
Group Decision Making with Uncertain Outcomes - Pamela Giustinelli
 
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Research presented by Pamela Giustinelli empirically examined the decision framework for Italian teenagers deciding on a high school track. This decision is complicated not only by the dual decision-makers, parents and children, who may have competing preferences, but also by differing beliefs regarding the child's future desires and likely outcomes. In this setting, the choice of a high school track (academic versus vocational) determines future career and education options. Giustinelli's unique data set of 1,029 9th grade students and their parents, by separately eliciting parents' and children's beliefs about future outcomes and preferences over tracks, and relating them to the final observed decision, provides insight into the decision rules used. Presenter(s): Pamela Giustinelli Recorded on November 16 and 17, 2012 in the Logan Center for the Arts, The University of Chicago. Pamela Giustinelli is currently Research Assistant Professor at the University of Michigan (Institute for Social Research, Survey Research Center). She received a Ph.D. in Economics from Northwestern University. Dr. Guistinelli's primary interests lie in modeling and empirical analysis of decision making under uncertainty by individuals and families, especially child-parent decision making and interactions, and within the human capital domain. To learn more about HCEO visit us at: http://www.hceconomics.org
Views: 348 hceconomics
PMP-  PMBOK -  Quantitative Risk Analysis -EMV - Expected Monetary Value Analysis
 
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PMP- PMBOK - Quantitative Risk Analysis -EMV - Expected Monetary Value Analysis using Decision tree. PMP® Certification Training: http://www.pmexpertinc.com/ www.pmexpertgroup.com For more updates on courses and tips follow us on: - Facebook :https://www.facebook.com/pmexpertinc/ http://www.pankajpmp.com/ You Tube Channel - https://www.youtube.com/c/PankajSharmaPMP
Views: 645 Pankaj Sharma

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